Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35bab864e64c43800092f2c53a4006c090e106e4c9554fc59b2499fb0b0484bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South America Rejectsof Aurora, South America Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked South America Rejects | 45c | 3,193$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.31 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed Aurora | 55c | 1,090$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.59 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed South America Rejects | 40c | 710.31$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.29 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Aurora | 55c | 707.64$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Aurora | 60c | 617.95$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.85 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 55c | 346.95$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.82 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed South America Rejects | 40c | 342.58$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.58 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Aurora | 61c | 319.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.34 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Aurora | 55c | 278.93$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.62 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed Aurora | 55c | 217.35$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked South America Rejects | 38c | 199.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.81 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed South America Rejects | 56c | 160.69$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Aurora | 53c | 134.74$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Aurora | 61c | 120.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed South America Rejects | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Aurora | 55c | 54.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Aurora | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…cde0backed Aurora | 44c | 51.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f8…6ef8backed Aurora | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Aurora | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Aurora | 55c | 38.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Aurora | 62c | 38.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Aurora | 55c | 37.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Aurora | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Aurora | 60c | 32.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Aurora | 55c | 27.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…477ebacked Aurora | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa584…c9adbacked Aurora | 60c | 17.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs South America Rejects - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.