TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
paiN Gamingof 1win, paiN Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,060 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbb3…76a9backed paiN Gaming71c2,467$1,757 inWon+$710.4851751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed 1win32c1,851$585 inLost-$584.6927737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed paiN Gaming74c1,794$1,333 inWon+$461.5366662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6c6…6d67backed 1win25c1,471$361 inLost-$361475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked paiN Gaming60c1,314$791 inWon+$522.4718746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked 1win35c584.13$204 inLost-$204.4536759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3860…bda6backed 1win49c405.41$199 inLost-$198.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed 1win51c356.45$182 inLost-$181.7929245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed 1win15c350$53 inLost-$52.522647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5808…d235backed 1win27c277.78$75 inLost-$7511744.4%52 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 1win13c273.98$36 inLost-$36.372,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked paiN Gaming77c250$193 inWon+$57.52,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3d…bbfabacked paiN Gaming79c206.81$164 inWon+$42.462748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed 1win12c171.08$20 inLost-$19.6817323.1%40 W · 133 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedce…412ebacked 1win8c151.93$13 inLost-$12.654719.1%9 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed 1win18c136.88$24 inLost-$24.355147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed paiN Gaming60c127.53$76 inWon+$51.5446649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 1win14c116.28$16 inLost-$16.281,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked paiN Gaming80c71.08$57 inWon+$14.2291356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed paiN Gaming76c66.24$50 inWon+$16.0434045.9%156 W · 184 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed paiN Gaming51c40$20 inWon+$19.618248.9%89 W · 93 L+15.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad06…b132backed paiN Gaming51c40$20 inWon+$19.62657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed paiN Gaming59c40$23 inWon+$16.630250%151 W · 151 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed paiN Gaming58c32$19 inWon+$13.4365337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win48c26.88$13 inLost-$12.92,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefff…2d98backed paiN Gaming59c25.42$15 inWon+$10.4216445.7%75 W · 89 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfff1…12e4backed paiN Gaming48c25.26$12 inWon+$13.1412937.2%48 W · 81 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked paiN Gaming62c25.18$16 inWon+$9.5733854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8b…01e9backed paiN Gaming48c23.15$11 inWon+$12.044443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1676…ab19backed paiN Gaming52c22.85$12 inWon+$10.975545.5%25 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked paiN Gaming52c22.85$12 inWon+$10.9722740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa87f…5bb5backed paiN Gaming70c21.54$15 inWon+$6.54580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7560…1ee1backed paiN Gaming48c21.05$10 inWon+$10.9521133.6%71 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked paiN Gaming58c20.86$12 inWon+$8.7628846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbd30…9a01backed paiN Gaming62c19.2$12 inWon+$7.316054.4%87 W · 73 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…6237backed paiN Gaming58c19.13$11 inWon+$8.036149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked paiN Gaming68c17.77$12 inWon+$5.6914963.1%94 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81fe…4089backed paiN Gaming68c17.77$12 inWon+$5.6913262.9%83 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked paiN Gaming73c16.55$12 inWon+$4.4713762.8%86 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.