Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb33089acd0e45c3741e685cfc30a36504d721e2cf834d84a2e91b5c6fcdaab21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiN Gamingof 1win, paiN Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,570 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked paiN Gaming | 41c | 4,027$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,365.41 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed 1win | 55c | 2,848$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.82 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed 1win | 44c | 1,801$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.78 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed paiN Gaming | 63c | 1,593$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.35 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1win | 39c | 1,309$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.88 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked 1win | 11c | 870.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed 1win | 29c | 662.76$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.49 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed paiN Gaming | 57c | 661.54$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.19 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked paiN Gaming | 71c | 651.5$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.79 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked 1win | 52c | 519.23$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.59 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed 1win | 21c | 497.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed 1win | 64c | 467.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked 1win | 58c | 444$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.2 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked 1win | 62c | 401.61$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed 1win | 60c | 357$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.6 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked paiN Gaming | 40c | 317.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.64 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked 1win | 5c | 310.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed paiN Gaming | 50c | 300$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed 1win | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed 1win | 43c | 299.56$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 1win | 60c | 253.48$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed 1win | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 173 | 23.1%40 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed paiN Gaming | 66c | 172.88$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked 1win | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed paiN Gaming | 57c | 160$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed paiN Gaming | 57c | 160$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked paiN Gaming | 40c | 160$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed paiN Gaming | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed 1win | 14c | 130.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked 1win | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked 1win | 60c | 97.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1win | 30c | 85.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed paiN Gaming | 68c | 83.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac1…d5c4backed 1win | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed paiN Gaming | 57c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked 1win | 57c | 76.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb68…c695backed 1win | 57c | 76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…6f82backed 1win | 60c | 68.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed paiN Gaming | 55c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…4b11backed paiN Gaming | 55c | 62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked paiN Gaming | 49c | 60.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed 1win | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 29.4%69 W · 166 L | -21.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc093…de0ebacked paiN Gaming | 43c | 53.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…3c1cbacked 1win | 33c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed 1win | 52c | 52.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked 1win | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…d3dfbacked paiN Gaming | 55c | 50.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed paiN Gaming | 55c | 50.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed paiN Gaming | 44c | 50.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3262…3e5fbacked 1win | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked paiN Gaming | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked paiN Gaming | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked paiN Gaming | 48c | 41.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked paiN Gaming | 44c | 27.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked paiN Gaming | 50c | 23.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…3781backed paiN Gaming | 69c | 22.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed paiN Gaming | 54c | 22.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked paiN Gaming | 58c | 20.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming (BO5) - CCT PlayoffspaiN Gaming won
- Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 WinnerpaiN Gaming won
- Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 3 WinnerpaiN Gaming won
- Game Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)paiN Gaming won
- Game Handicap: paiN (-2.5) vs 1win (+2.5)paiN Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.