Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x433f33f3ab0f0b32ec89f061289637cbde141b33b23c4aac9d3aa5d33cbd29bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiN Gamingof 1win, paiN Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,232 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked 1win | 32c | 3,241$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.78 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed paiN Gaming | 67c | 2,146$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.61 | 504 | 49.2%248 W · 256 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked paiN Gaming | 69c | 1,989$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.45 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed 1win | 33c | 1,254$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.75 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 1win | 31c | 864.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.26 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed 1win | 33c | 800$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 276 | 37.3%103 W · 173 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…148dbacked paiN Gaming | 74c | 542.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed 1win | 31c | 498$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.38 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked paiN Gaming | 66c | 419.35$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.37 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed paiN Gaming | 70c | 400.76$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed 1win | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 23.1%40 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…3015backed paiN Gaming | 73c | 353.89$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked paiN Gaming | 49c | 353.74$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.74 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed paiN Gaming | 40c | 344$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.71 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed 1win | 11c | 330.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9b4fbacked paiN Gaming | 71c | 282.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked 1win | 41c | 275.03$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked 1win | 40c | 261.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed 1win | 31c | 212.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed 1win | 36c | 202.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed 1win | 32c | 181.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked 1win | 57c | 175.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,197 | 59.2%709 W · 488 L | +63.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked 1win | 31c | 153.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed 1win | 38c | 151.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed 1win | 12c | 138$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 317 | 36%114 W · 203 L | -18.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked 1win | 33c | 134.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed paiN Gaming | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed paiN Gaming | 72c | 107.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked 1win | 31c | 94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 917 | 56.5%518 W · 399 L | +79.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed 1win | 31c | 91.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1win | 34c | 65.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed 1win | 32c | 53.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…8e0abacked paiN Gaming | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked 1win | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming | 63c | 40.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked paiN Gaming | 56c | 39.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 907 | 56.1%509 W · 398 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…3c1cbacked paiN Gaming | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked paiN Gaming | 72c | 31.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked paiN Gaming | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…3691backed paiN Gaming | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed paiN Gaming | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed paiN Gaming | 66c | 22.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…daf2backed paiN Gaming | 65c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming (BO5) - CCT PlayoffspaiN Gaming won
- Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 WinnerpaiN Gaming won
- Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 3 WinnerpaiN Gaming won
- Game Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)paiN Gaming won
- Game Handicap: paiN (-2.5) vs 1win (+2.5)paiN Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.