Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on US military in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35fe8b9dc04ad1070dca2d15629dc13517ed8a5778415988ddb2cebb47132f23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 6c | 15,762$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.56 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…024bbacked Yes | 10c | 8,579$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 1c | 8,490$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,381$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 5,424$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6482…5fedbacked Yes | 3c | 4,323$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 6c | 3,657$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.34 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…5fffbacked Yes | 8c | 3,294$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 2,297$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 5c | 2,138$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…14bbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,907$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 12c | 1,665$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.16 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 9c | 1,600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…d6d7backed Yes | 14c | 737.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…5333backed Yes | 6c | 650$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd993…844abacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…123ebacked Yes | 5c | 549.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 532.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 11c | 513.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0053…4088backed Yes | 4c | 404.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 12c | 359.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x114f…686cbacked Yes | 13c | 346.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…ea4bbacked Yes | 9c | 322.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…bfd6backed Yes | 9c | 217.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd0…6837backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b5…b0ffbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 9c | 145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 37c | 119.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 11c | 114$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 17c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…cbfdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0a6ebacked Yes | 16c | 64.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…4ec0backed No | 64c | 41.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.