Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x360ad4a5490cf757a35dc982dfdbc3109a88ccd4699075512b428932864cb45c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 2c | 1,149$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb199…36e6backed No | 61c | 627.56$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 302.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 40c | 282.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 272.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 256.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 227.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 7c | 221.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed No | 55c | 188.51$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 45c | 160$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 46c | 152.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 7c | 145.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 143$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 35c | 142.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 50c | 139.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 62c | 105.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 37c | 104.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 95.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 41c | 95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 94.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 92.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 33c | 90.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 87.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 85.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 41c | 84.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 25c | 83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…35a8backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 44c | 70.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed Yes | 34c | 62.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 22c | 62.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 58c | 58.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31c…bdf7backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 33c | 55.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 36c | 55.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 39c | 52.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 39c | 51.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 19c | 51.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 51.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 36c | 50.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 43c | 50.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 65c | 46.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 43c | 44.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 43.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 42.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 39c | 40.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 59c | 35.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 34.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 74c | 33.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 45c | 33.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 62c | 31.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…532abacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 47c | 27.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 64c | 26.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 65c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 62c | 21.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 21.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…ae3fbacked Yes | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 69c | 16.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.