Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3e9b2334831b45a91ee74666b1caca0c110e880599b0bea3cc70f54517664d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4acc…9bdabacked No | 1c | 2,778$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 23c | 654.97$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 41c | 619.1$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.04 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…f027backed No | 61c | 427.37$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 73c | 386.96$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 9c | 358.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 46c | 331.25$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.46 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 9c | 315.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 283.05$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 260.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…b5aabacked No | 69c | 250.73$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 242.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 228.29$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b01…4b96backed No | 67c | 220.82$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 46c | 216.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 31c | 156.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.83 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 30c | 148.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 33c | 144.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 32c | 129.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…d9d3backed No | 77c | 123.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 116.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 37c | 112.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 110.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 65c | 109.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 32c | 102.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 34c | 92.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 90.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 77c | 86.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 46c | 86.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 57c | 86.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 85.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 36c | 82.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 48c | 82.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 59c | 77.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 31c | 76.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 30c | 76.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 75.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 70c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…35a8backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 71.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 16c | 69.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 68.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 34c | 68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 61.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 41c | 61.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x902b…6e29backed No | 76c | 60.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 78c | 58.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 18c | 55.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 25c | 53.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 49.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 67c | 45.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 65c | 45.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 66c | 44.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 44.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 67c | 43.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 28c | 42.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes | 38c | 39.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 47c | 38.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 31c | 37.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 57c | 35.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 65c | 34.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 68c | 32.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…7d74backed Yes | 32c | 31.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 64c | 31.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 69c | 27.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 26.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 24.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed No | 68c | 22.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…532abacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…d30fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 16.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 68c | 14.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.