Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36166e52c94fb3503aa8030781d10207a95144a260616f97952bf564198a444a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Aurora | 0c | 10,277$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Aurora | 33c | 6,585$2,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,171.51 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Spirit | 66c | 6,061$4,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.49 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Aurora | 35c | 3,569$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 2,610$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.5 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 1,239$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.38 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 931.12$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.06 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Aurora | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Spirit | 60c | 450$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora | 30c | 349$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.67 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Aurora | 22c | 265.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Team Spirit | 67c | 224.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…ae6ebacked Aurora | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…f355backed Team Spirit | 72c | 141.13$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Aurora | 17c | 140.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf3…b401backed Aurora | 37c | 134.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6a…56d6backed Team Spirit | 70c | 133.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b6…ebb8backed Aurora | 31c | 127.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Team Spirit | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Aurora | 30c | 96.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Aurora | 13c | 85.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Aurora | 25c | 79.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Team Spirit | 68c | 64.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Team Spirit | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Spirit | 68c | 58.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Team Spirit | 75c | 53.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 48.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…49dbbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 45.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Aurora | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabb4…d3c5backed Team Spirit | 78c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Team Spirit | 79c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…67dbbacked Team Spirit | 79c | 17.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc222…dc84backed Team Spirit | 79c | 17.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe936…8944backed Team Spirit | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.