Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3632e7ccc8edc806299c0fa785b5f24e6d09da91eb4b47c6e8ab80ae324a5353
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb851…0dfebacked Yes | 3c | 1,173$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.3 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 3c | 884.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.31 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef33…6be3backed Yes | 3c | 751.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +530.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 4c | 582.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.47 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 2c | 549.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.57 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 4c | 361.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.8 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 333.39$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 59c | 324.95$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.07 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 70c | 295.31$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.95 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 13c | 285.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.69 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 57c | 251.95$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.95 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 30c | 226.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.63 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 12c | 188.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.84 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 10c | 162.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.43 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 45c | 143.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 143$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 68c | 135$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…7c49backed Yes | 68c | 116.23$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdccb…a7a0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 16c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 15c | 94.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc082…4c5fbacked No | 20c | 87.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…7df3backed Yes | 68c | 82.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 25c | 71.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…4ff3backed Yes | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e0…d1aebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 78c | 49.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 35.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 60c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.