Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48d74f9f8deb74c3433ddf9eb7edd5aa255605bc215b66b66b93149fb111fef9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 46c | 1,300$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.3 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 54c | 1,053$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.22 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Yes | 58c | 750$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ea…c5fabacked No | 13c | 627$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +691.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 79c | 532.2$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.17 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 2c | 473.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.42 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 24c | 449.47$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 3c | 439.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.79 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 399.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 17c | 369.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 8c | 250$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.05 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 211.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 202.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 12c | 143.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 13c | 129$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 126$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 37c | 124$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 122.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 113.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 15c | 105$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 13c | 94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 18c | 89.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 57.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…fad2backed No | 70c | 24.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 19.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 73c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 16.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.