MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3696931c4215e9b3e9611d79412479857af70adcfd5bf09c7e449c8e287ea9e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 9c | 2,492$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 22c | 1,384$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.25 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 79c | 863$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.26 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Texas Rangers | 18c | 424.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 351.22$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Texas Rangers | 9c | 172.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 81.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Minnesota Twins | 77c | 78.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Texas Rangers | 24c | 76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 71.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Texas Rangers | 24c | 68.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…866ebacked Minnesota Twins | 78c | 67.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 65.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 53.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 22c | 52.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 50.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…2c8bbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd972…8e8bbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Minnesota Twins | 76c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas RangersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.