MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71225208709544d263a91a23677293b11105b0966fa177e6cd2ca7191a69a714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 49c | 18,342$8,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,987.51 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 8,615$4,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,213.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 5,371$2,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 1,948$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 1,641$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.17 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 1,565$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.7 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Over | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 50c | 938.08$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.04 | 192 | 46.9%90 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 500.33$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Under | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 50c | 485.9$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.95 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 51c | 419.25$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.53 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 51c | 344.74$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.92 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 306.75$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 305$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 51c | 299$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 50c | 214$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 208 | 48.1%100 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 46c | 182.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 50c | 178.12$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 51c | 154$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 121.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 117.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 50c | 82.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 41c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 50c | 68.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 50c | 62.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 50c | 60.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 50c | 51.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Under | 51c | 48.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Under | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 31c | 43.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 55c | 40.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 50c | 40.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…fcc5backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 50c | 38.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 50c | 35.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bac…e59dbacked Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Over | 50c | 28.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…14edbacked Under | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 46c | 25.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under | 51c | 25.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…918fbacked Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…9b93backed Over | 50c | 24.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 51c | 20.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas RangersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.