CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36c64f9c8363769ba04f20404a8f712559319e90ce446bba45b5539d218043fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TDKof TDK, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 50c | 4,283$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.51 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked TDK | 58c | 3,790$2,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.7 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Ursa | 39c | 2,345$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.48 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ursa | 52c | 2,295$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.59 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked TDK | 52c | 1,497$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.54 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked TDK | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Ursa | 46c | 989.15$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.24 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…0c20backed Ursa | 50c | 824.38$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.19 | 261 | 55.2%144 W · 117 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…35a3backed TDK | 49c | 815.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.16 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked TDK | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed TDK | 48c | 746.95$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.77 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…acc1backed TDK | 49c | 609.32$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.75 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed TDK | 48c | 536.07$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.12 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5e…1468backed TDK | 46c | 534.81$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.8 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…d38ebacked TDK | 50c | 532$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed TDK | 47c | 475.91$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.23 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked TDK | 48c | 420.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Ursa | 52c | 383.65$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…d240backed TDK | 49c | 383.16$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…e3c8backed TDK | 49c | 287.33$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.33 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked Ursa | 30c | 202.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked TDK | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…32c4backed TDK | 48c | 187.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed TDK | 65c | 163.1$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Ursa | 52c | 150.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…4176backed TDK | 49c | 149.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Ursa | 52c | 136.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed TDK | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…cddbbacked TDK | 70c | 106.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 133 | 71.4%95 W · 38 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ursa | 50c | 98.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed TDK | 47c | 80.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Ursa | 50c | 70.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked TDK | 49c | 63.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 324 | 58%188 W · 136 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed TDK | 47c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…e1b9backed TDK | 48c | 60.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Ursa | 32c | 54.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed TDK | 50c | 51.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked TDK | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Ursa | 52c | 43.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 347 | 50.7%176 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Ursa | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Ursa | 50c | 35.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…bc14backed Ursa | 51c | 29.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed TDK | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed TDK | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e9a6backed TDK | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked TDK | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Ursa | 50c | 24.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9444…048ebacked Ursa | 51c | 20.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…04ffbacked TDK | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 PlayoffsTDK won
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerTDK won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Ursa (+3.5)TDK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.