CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2eb97a27cf34c8181487a028826ac71f8792a57627f24809edd7907000fd809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TDKof TDK, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Ursa | 32c | 3,401$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.81 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ursa | 11c | 3,041$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.29 | 1,431 | 39%558 W · 873 L | -41.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…07a7backed Ursa | 30c | 2,363$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.14 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4036…0dd9backed TDK | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Ursa | 18c | 1,977$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.42 | 1,110 | 54.2%602 W · 508 L | +38.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Ursa | 25c | 1,896$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.8 | 1,523 | 51.5%785 W · 738 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ursa | 33c | 1,525$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.98 | 1,790 | 59.2%1,060 W · 730 L | +106.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Ursa | 26c | 1,500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 2,527 | 43.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L | +42.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Ursa | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 574 | 0%0 W · 574 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed Ursa | 26c | 686.8$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.71 | 414 | 50.7%210 W · 204 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed TDK | 66c | 559.49$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.05 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ursa | 20c | 523.2$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked TDK | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…e1b2backed TDK | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked TDK | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 303 | 48.5%147 W · 156 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Ursa | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 967 | 43.5%421 W · 546 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Ursa | 30c | 217.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked Ursa | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 351 | 31.1%109 W · 242 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Ursa | 26c | 192.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked TDK | 77c | 191$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…e928backed TDK | 59c | 186.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Ursa | 22c | 172.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 321 | 38.6%124 W · 197 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Ursa | 22c | 172.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 309 | 38.5%119 W · 190 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 33c | 162.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Ursa | 35c | 159.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed Ursa | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed TDK | 75c | 136$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 152 | 77.6%118 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Ursa | 19c | 134$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Ursa | 17c | 119$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Ursa | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1,283 | 22%282 W · 1,001 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Ursa | 24c | 84.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 409 | 72.4%296 W · 113 L | +38.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Ursa | 27c | 80.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 531 | 45.4%241 W · 290 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Ursa | 18c | 73.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 364 | 34.1%124 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed TDK | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 2,474 | 24.7%611 W · 1,863 L | -316.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Ursa | 19c | 64.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 624 | 48.2%301 W · 323 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…3f31backed TDK | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…1e38backed Ursa | 31c | 40.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed TDK | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked TDK | 61c | 34.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…5e36backed TDK | 57c | 31.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 239 | 56.5%135 W · 104 L | +15.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked TDK | 77c | 30.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 504 | 58.5%295 W · 209 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf5…1095backed Ursa | 45c | 30.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 PlayoffsTDK won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Ursa (+3.5)TDK won
- Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5)TDK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.