Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36dda584de5403c485e49867b1329c9332f20ca94fd6f666a4084a1f4fda296b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 70c | 5,679$3,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.5 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 21c | 3,884$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 36c | 1,111$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 1,056$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.66 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 80c | 958.7$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.74 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 846$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.89 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 64c | 750.26$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.58 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 78c | 746.88$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.04 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 66c | 650.97$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.58 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 41c | 624.63$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 64c | 599.98$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 37c | 513.51$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…dd00backed Yes | 40c | 506.34$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 36c | 479.28$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 37c | 404.76$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Yes | 14c | 397$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 34c | 344.04$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.97 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 64c | 299.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…a48abacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 42c | 241.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Yes | 30c | 166.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…6193backed Yes | 33c | 149.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 73c | 143$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01bb…21f5backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Yes | 34c | 118.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 32c | 117.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Yes | 42c | 83.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 64c | 77.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked No | 64c | 66.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 36c | 63.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 36c | 57.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…5db5backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 66c | 54.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes | 31c | 50.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked No | 68c | 46.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 66c | 41.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed No | 66c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 67c | 22.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.