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Bundesliga · resolved market

Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-05?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,966
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,966 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2129…4222backed No70c5,679$3,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.519153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes21c3,884$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8008637.2%32 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes36c1,111$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40018840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No67c1,056$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.662,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No80c958.7$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.7423842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No65c846$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.893,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No64c750.26$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.585143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No78c746.88$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.042646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No66c650.97$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.589053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0727…ec27backed Yes41c624.63$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked No64c599.98$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.993243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes37c513.51$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3061…dd00backed Yes40c506.34$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702737%10 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4021…956abacked Yes36c479.28$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1744753.2%25 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes37c404.76$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502045%9 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+47.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Yes14c397$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.583119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes34c344.04$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9719347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052536%9 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed No64c299.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7623…a48abacked Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes42c241.83$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.572544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ab…341bbacked Yes30c166.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked No64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb228…6193backed Yes33c149.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No73c143$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6351136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01bb…21f5backed Yes36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Yes37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501580%12 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+89.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3fb5…6530backed Yes34c118.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.372360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Yes32c117.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.663234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3912635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0148…daf8backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No67c88$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0424258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fa7…04bfbacked Yes42c83.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes37c81.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302450%12 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed No64c77.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0814254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe797…2b36backed No63c75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.75922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-66.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16ce…b3dcbacked No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.444261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2272…2e9cbacked No64c66.79$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.043828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes36c63.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb0b…e2a3backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Yes36c57.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.816339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x569d…5db5backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be7…8d02backed Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked No66c54.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.554252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes31c50.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a2…9bbabacked No68c46.72$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No66c41.11$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7734342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b8…6a66backed Yes30c33.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105768.4%39 W · 18 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dff…bc36backed No66c29.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No69c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4433945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No67c22.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.