Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3707ab618925c8c2efb30c0894aaa05073975fb9354355ee9586509aab0084de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 34c | 5,301$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.22 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 69c | 2,817$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.24 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4064…f741backed Over | 55c | 2,282$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.81 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 1,305$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.54 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 48c | 623.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 18c | 609.27$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 36c | 426.64$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 313.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 45c | 204.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 192.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 68c | 185$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 44c | 178.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 71c | 173.42$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Under | 45c | 168$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 35c | 143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 57c | 140.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 135.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3b…f353backed Under | 45c | 112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc117…6ddabacked Over | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…cebfbacked Over | 56c | 68.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6d…fc98backed Over | 80c | 62.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…08cfbacked Over | 45c | 52.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 74c | 40.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 53c | 30.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Over | 71c | 29.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 71c | 29.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 55c | 28.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 56c | 27.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 73c | 23.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…2c66backed Over | 47c | 23.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Under | 48c | 23.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa036…6aa1backed Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.