Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce9d0df7f05046e86196ff78958009bd0c0656acd240fe5a6ce296744c0f879
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 56c | 4,384$2,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,461.92 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 49c | 3,604$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.88 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 3,397$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.49 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 2,725$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.59 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 23c | 2,135$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.78 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 31c | 948.14$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.7 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 15c | 743.01$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.63 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 680.78$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.81 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 58c | 506.38$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe77…8166backed Over | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 78c | 383.6$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.21 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 58c | 318.21$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.2 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 44c | 309.53$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.11 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 72c | 306$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.04 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 292.77$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.09 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 48c | 208.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…e6a5backed Over | 53c | 188.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Over | 41c | 122.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Under | 74c | 105$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 50c | 99.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 21c | 93.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Over | 54c | 85.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 51c | 68.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…d539backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 46c | 47.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 33c | 45.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 41c | 43.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 30c | 37.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Over | 47c | 27.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…cd3bbacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…344fbacked Over | 44c | 22.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Over | 53c | 22.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…d6a5backed Under | 79c | 21.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.