Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a142392f2921788b9d21ec32f289ca2f381c6704f29c8379ea6705112d981f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,619$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.34 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 41c | 1,193$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.68 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…ce68backed Under | 42c | 1,141$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 58c | 992.58$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.88 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 56c | 847$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.68 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Under | 71c | 820$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 812.12$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.04 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 41c | 600$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 30c | 554.01$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.54 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 59c | 542.63$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.51 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 37c | 530.78$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 60c | 466.67$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 45c | 350$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 32c | 334.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.54 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 215 | 52.1%112 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 145.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 39c | 128.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 128.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 65c | 103.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ed…467abacked Under | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…78efbacked Over | 34c | 87.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 59c | 74.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 67c | 73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 341 | 50.7%173 W · 168 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 280 | 40.4%113 W · 167 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…3173backed Over | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 37c | 64.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Under | 51c | 62.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 37c | 53.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Under | 70c | 53.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…e4abbacked Under | 69c | 50.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 63c | 46.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…cebfbacked Over | 33c | 45.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 63c | 34.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…cd46backed Under | 60c | 32.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked Over | 66c | 30.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 45c | 25.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 201 | 65.7%132 W · 69 L | +28.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Under | 54c | 21.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Over | 60c | 21.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Under | 69c | 19.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.