Champions League · resolved market
Will Atalanta beat Arsenal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x371c529781a8390dea74564c77fc4195521901855c684a04e281d8fcd42c318c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 79c | 3,936$3,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.56 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050c…0d94backed Yes | 24c | 2,085$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 21c | 1,820$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.1 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,620$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.06 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 76c | 874.8$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.95 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 76c | 728.19$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.3 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…0039backed Yes | 22c | 445.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 22c | 439.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 76c | 359.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 77c | 349.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…532fbacked Yes | 24c | 223$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +62%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bd…a95abacked Yes | 24c | 183.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 23c | 123.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -10.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…feb8backed Yes | 23c | 87.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bf…91bfbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…4a67backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c0…3a58backed No | 79c | 14.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atalanta beat Arsenal?this page
- Will Arsenal beat Atalanta?No won
- Will the match between Atalanta vs. Arsenal end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.