College Football · resolved market
Texas State vs. Arizona State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3734f860f2ab22a25283b38808c14c8c9957cc218cfd281ef70535b6f9d6808e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Stateof Texas State, Arizona State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa3b…bd1dbacked Texas State | 0c | 31,636$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Texas State | 11c | 11,500$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Texas State | 13c | 5,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Texas State | 15c | 4,545$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.07 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Texas State | 14c | 4,026$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.33 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Texas State | 6c | 2,849$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.88 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked Texas State | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Texas State | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Texas State | 10c | 1,945$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Texas State | 12c | 1,881$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Texas State | 2c | 1,013$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Texas State | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Texas State | 4c | 783$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed Texas State | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Texas State | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Texas State | 13c | 438$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Texas State | 11c | 377.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Texas State | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Texas State | 13c | 289$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Texas State | 13c | 253.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Texas State | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Texas State | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Texas State | 13c | 118.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Texas State | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Texas State | 14c | 92.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Texas State | 16c | 85.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Texas State | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas State vs. Arizona Statethis page
- Spread: Arizona State (-17.5)Arizona State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.