Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x374a17886f2bbb161a2f1d6383543b116576c8ea5bde82d3eec9bd9868359aa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 68c | 2,227$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.34 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.99 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 48c | 1,870$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.55 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 1,366$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.35 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 32c | 521.96$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.75 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 65c | 409.5$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.32 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 26c | 358$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 35c | 342.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 315.79$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Over | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 72c | 230.72$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 37c | 230.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 63c | 193.93$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed Under | 25c | 192.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 31c | 190.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 39c | 160.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 145.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 70c | 143$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 134.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Over | 53c | 104.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 55c | 102$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Under | 26c | 83.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 62c | 73.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 38c | 73.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 36c | 65.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Under | 45c | 60.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 52c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 73c | 52.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 73c | 39.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…8d53backed Under | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 53c | 34.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +8.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 43c | 31.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…ac30backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 59c | 28.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 66c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 66c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 66c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 66c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 66c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 66c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 66c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 66c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 66c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.