TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,611
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,611 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x160b…4296backed Under70c2,367$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.1421547.9%103 W · 112 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under80c2,159$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.353,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Over4c1,590$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.615547.3%26 W · 29 L+14.3wins+0.26per pick21cpaid+225.7%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Over15c1,220$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.893228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over21c936.56$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2420554.6%112 W · 93 L+17.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+29.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over33c891.6$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.3739567.1%265 W · 130 L+60.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over29c864.22$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.3237138.8%144 W · 227 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over15c751.1$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8716453%87 W · 77 L+20.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+40%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over32c748.5$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.029740.2%39 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over17c735.63$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.11,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over21c727.18$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4329460.5%178 W · 116 L+36.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+34.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Over30c627.8$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.344949%24 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11591553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under73c495.97$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.987542.7%32 W · 43 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd7e…cd92backed Under70c444$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.14580%4 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over74c386$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.911,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under67c324.6$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.582044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over25c324.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0312849.2%63 W · 65 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over26c255$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4355750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1792…118abacked Under20c244.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.9312571.2%89 W · 36 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+35.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under73c242$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5458043.6%253 W · 327 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over25c236$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596222.6%14 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over24c224.5$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1231158.5%182 W · 129 L+27.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under66c211.46$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.2921545.1%97 W · 118 L-20.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Over17c199.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.278760.9%53 W · 34 L+13.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+24.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under77c180$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0324351.4%125 W · 118 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over40c177.06$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1677751.7%402 W · 375 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7568550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Over68c134$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5619073.7%140 W · 50 L+18.6wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+22.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under69c129.66$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1987154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Under69c115.49$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.812848.4%62 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Over16c90.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.519645.9%90 W · 106 L+10.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over17c89.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.281010%1 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick40cpaid-83.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xffea…5f0abacked Over37c74.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.634168.3%28 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Under67c73.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.289965.7%65 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Under67c73.59$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce27…8a7dbacked Over34c73.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over26c65.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-62.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under73c65.19$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.680358%466 W · 337 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4947…d93abacked Over31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under65c63.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3439234.4%135 W · 257 L-47.2wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-31%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x56c2…abcbbacked Under67c59.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6859…f7c2backed Over38c55.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213943.6%17 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over30c53.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9724859.3%147 W · 101 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Over30c53.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.974858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Over30c53.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.973461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Over30c53.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.976358.7%37 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Over30c53.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.971060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1968…8c66backed Over30c53.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.971060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over30c53.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9714151.8%73 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over28c38.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.593565.7%23 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe777…c734backed Under59c30.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.392343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over35c28.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d46…26d8backed Under71c27.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.081872.2%13 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Under74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.034967.3%33 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107955.7%44 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd2…e809backed Under72c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Under75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53847.4%18 W · 20 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Under59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.25633.9%19 W · 37 L-9.8wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under72c17.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.981,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.