Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5269b49dcda088950ffc8ff266d969ef6f22da0990b3e61adc5df29178af302c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 70c | 2,367$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.14 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 2,159$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.35 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 4c | 1,590$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 15c | 1,220$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.89 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 21c | 936.56$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.24 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 33c | 891.6$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.37 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 29c | 864.22$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.32 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 15c | 751.1$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 32c | 748.5$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.02 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 17c | 735.63$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 21c | 727.18$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.43 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 30c | 627.8$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 73c | 495.97$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.98 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…cd92backed Under | 70c | 444$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 74c | 386$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.91 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 324.6$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 25c | 324.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 26c | 255$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Under | 20c | 244.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.93 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 73c | 242$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 25c | 236$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 24c | 224.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 66c | 211.46$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 17c | 199.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 40c | 177.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 68c | 134$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 69c | 129.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 69c | 115.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 16c | 90.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 17c | 89.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 37c | 74.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 67c | 73.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Under | 67c | 73.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Over | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 73c | 65.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d93abacked Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 65c | 63.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Under | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 38c | 55.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 30c | 53.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 30c | 53.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 30c | 53.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 30c | 53.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Over | 30c | 53.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…8c66backed Over | 30c | 53.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 30c | 53.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 28c | 38.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Under | 59c | 30.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 35c | 28.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Under | 71c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…e809backed Under | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -9.8wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 17.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.