Mls · resolved market
Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c4e91920686cc43ae054aa12a84e388b6dea69fe7ffa046b87787812d84ad86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sporting Kansas Cityof Real Salt Lake, Sporting Kansas City
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Real Salt Lake | 32c | 1,707$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.83 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Real Salt Lake | 40c | 1,688$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.67 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Sporting Kansas City | 68c | 1,182$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.6 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sporting Kansas City | 60c | 1,121$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.02 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Sporting Kansas City | 68c | 1,102$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Real Salt Lake | 32c | 525.77$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.96 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Sporting Kansas City | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Sporting Kansas City | 69c | 348.1$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Real Salt Lake | 31c | 255.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Real Salt Lake | 32c | 149.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Real Salt Lake | 31c | 140.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Sporting Kansas City | 68c | 140.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Sporting Kansas City | 71c | 127$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Real Salt Lake | 44c | 121.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Real Salt Lake | 39c | 79.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Real Salt Lake | 43c | 75.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…8d60backed Real Salt Lake | 47c | 70.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sporting Kansas City | 67c | 64.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Sporting Kansas City | 61c | 58.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sporting Kansas City | 72c | 53.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Sporting Kansas City | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Sporting Kansas City | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Sporting Kansas City | 67c | 39.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sporting Kansas City | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Sporting Kansas City | 67c | 29.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Real Salt Lake | 48c | 25.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed Sporting Kansas City | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Sporting Kansas City | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Sporting Kansas City | 71c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.