MLB · resolved market
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x375840908176603d4e1ef2ea6cd2b6fd476bb558648dc1269ac4ea1f173cfe3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Colorado Rockies, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 45,952$20,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,355.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 36,779$21,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,769.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 7,283$3,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,631.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 948.02$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.41 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 868.76$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 732.52$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.56 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 619.78$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.09 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 459.5$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.21 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 323$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.73 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 294.83$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.06 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 127.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 120.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 92.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 65.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 63.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 61.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 48.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 48.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 44.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Chicago Cubs | 55c | 43.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 40.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bad…ed33backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 30.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 28.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 21.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.