MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd23254b2999bbdcfaf32794b358758c7fb0900b4cd0fa3f9f66f6b276cfef480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 12,500$6,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,250 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 8,635$4,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,309.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 6,491$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…d98abacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 65c | 2,678$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 1,484$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.82 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 975.36$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.17 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 941.56$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.78 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 654.02$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 558.77$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.62 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 24c | 282.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 280.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 280.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…d382backed Colorado Rockies | 75c | 269.33$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 257.73$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.53 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 167.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 156$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 140.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 126.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…b615backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 117.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 73.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 70.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 36.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…622fbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 31.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…4056backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 29.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…095fbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 28.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 20.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…4883backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.