MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37617e1c597bb4e5fc5e3e5fb3c3737c13391f426a12ebf14c57fb3e421e5003
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 13,984$6,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,281.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 13,523$7,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,858.45 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 57c | 4,457$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 4,245$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 1,143$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.42 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 396.62$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 331.67$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 320.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 250$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Seattle Mariners | 79c | 204.68$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 147.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 138.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 80.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 242 | 52.9%128 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 28c | 78.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 69.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…bb65backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 59.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 58.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 58.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 57.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 52.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…0f76backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 46.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 44.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 41.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 41.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…d1f0backed Seattle Mariners | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 40.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Seattle Mariners | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 37.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 36.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…359cbacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 34.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf388…5c83backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 31.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 25.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 25.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 23.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Seattle Mariners | 73c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 18.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.