TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$319,721
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$321,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,721 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over51c203,921$104,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,999.746949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Under49c181,826$89,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,731.2655053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe23…b587backed Over52c34,878$18,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,136.5560%0 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Under49c28,776$14,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,675.8732251.6%166 W · 156 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under48c25,752$12,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,372.814,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Under48c18,245$8,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,487.6528350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under49c16,804$8,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,570.0932152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over51c14,302$7,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,341.2511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Over51c12,900$6,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,578.9944851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over52c10,584$5,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,502.084,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under50c10,018$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,017.7134942.7%149 W · 200 L-19.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over49c7,515$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,710.248,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under48c5,829$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,031.063,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over51c5,522$2,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,812.86,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Over50c4,997$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.2733554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Under50c4,801$2,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400.69749.5%48 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Under50c2,277$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.6754152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over50c2,007$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.266,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc444…20dabacked Under68c1,500$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4809250%46 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under50c1,333$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.361,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe478…28eabacked Under49c1,224$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.496858.8%40 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.9775248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over51c1,000$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50895850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Under49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51021653.2%115 W · 101 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over34c766.2$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.7710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over50c713.92$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.123,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over52c701$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.522,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Under50c685.96$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.9818551.4%95 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over38c648.11$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.8812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Over52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30066050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under50c486.68$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.3451555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbe…1f4abacked Under42c480.43$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.047753.2%41 W · 36 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0f…3476backed Over42c477.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22ed…3535backed Over52c471.42$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.14425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Over52c430.33$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.194748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Under50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20040554.8%222 W · 183 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8ac…b73dbacked Under50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20011551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under49c339.02$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.91,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Under49c315.7$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0127351.3%140 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1538,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf388…5c83backed Over17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…715cbacked Under53c283.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.028349.4%41 W · 42 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over51c258$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.582,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under72c255.19$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.228,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0838252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10439440.9%161 W · 233 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10058649.5%290 W · 296 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8fd…3e24backed Over52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10411047.3%52 W · 58 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8c2…080bbacked Under50c185.86$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.934461.4%27 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under50c178.62$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3145246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Under49c168.48$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9224350.2%122 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over20c166.62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.582,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72db…1029backed Under52c165.84$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.62259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1880…eebcbacked Over17c163.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.06837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Under50c160.22$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1123851.3%122 W · 116 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…0f76backed Over17c154.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.072045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Over77c150.92$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.553644.6%239 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over18c144.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.053,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over33c127.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.421,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xdcdd…6d55backed Under50c127.1$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.559058.9%53 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Over47c110.89$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9624243%104 W · 138 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under41c109.31$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.492,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under49c101$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.176,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over51c100.01$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5973849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5031446.8%147 W · 167 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Over52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc169…cb6abacked Over52c86.54$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ad…d3fbbacked Under50c83.8$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.94050%20 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Under50c78.44$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2218353.6%98 W · 85 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under48c77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.042,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed Over71c75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2526860.4%162 W · 106 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…5162backed Under50c68.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.351855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f36…905fbacked Over52c68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3619152.9%101 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Over51c64.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3331343.5%136 W · 177 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe246…dedcbacked Under50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3026753.9%144 W · 123 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over51c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.362,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d7…f69dbacked Under50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309147.3%43 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b81…b68bbacked Over55c53.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.617040%28 W · 42 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ef6…9b93backed Under50c50.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.296741.8%28 W · 39 L-6.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Under48c49.96$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9817953.1%95 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6123…8b33backed Over52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526853.7%144 W · 124 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Under50c48.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.012556%14 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d84…4b14backed Under50c44.58$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.291850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5965…d26dbacked Over52c43.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5516450.6%83 W · 81 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d6…9892backed Over51c42.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7434451.5%177 W · 167 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x829a…a748backed Under50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018751.9%97 W · 90 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Over47c36.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.383053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34cf…6659backed Under49c35.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.933938.5%15 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Under48c34.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0825448.4%123 W · 131 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Under50c32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1625256.7%143 W · 109 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under38c31.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.695,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over51c30.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.462,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under35c29.84$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.492,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8263…e0f1backed Over46c29.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6234754.8%190 W · 157 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Under49c21.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9772655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Over51c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7150748.7%247 W · 260 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over52c20.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.561,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.