TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Amaru Gaming (BO3)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Amaru Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,231
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,231 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a22…c3b5backed Amaru Gaming11c8,610$920 inLost-$9202313%3 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Amaru Gaming0c4,552$15 inLost-$15.266169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked Amaru Gaming11c4,463$509 inLost-$508.515137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Amaru Gaming14c3,983$566 inLost-$565.6430138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Amaru Gaming13c2,272$293 inLost-$293.1237832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Amaru Gaming1c1,522$19 inLost-$18.9205%1 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-80.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Amaru Gaming10c1,518$153 inLost-$152.6139936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Amaru Gaming4c1,428$59 inLost-$58.818452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Amaru Gaming2c1,158$28 inLost-$28.4714947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Amaru Gaming10c1,000$100 inLost-$10089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Amaru Gaming10c513.22$51 inLost-$51.325044%22 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed Amaru Gaming4c503$20 inLost-$20.122917.2%5 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Amaru Gaming11c454.55$50 inLost-$506131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Amaru Gaming11c394.17$42 inLost-$41.5110833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Amaru Gaming13c380$49 inLost-$49.48223.2%19 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Amaru Gaming12c352.99$43 inLost-$43.053354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d7d…8484backed Amaru Gaming8c327.94$25 inLost-$25520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84b…95b1backed Amaru Gaming4c266.87$10 inLost-$10.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+57.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfbf…58f2backed Amaru Gaming5c263.33$13 inLost-$12.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Amaru Gaming11c245.45$27 inLost-$279423.4%22 W · 72 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Amaru Gaming11c200$22 inLost-$229756.7%55 W · 42 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Amaru Gaming9c176.01$17 inLost-$16.5616835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5571…4015backed Amaru Gaming12c167.92$20 inLost-$201442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Amaru Gaming14c100$14 inLost-$1414948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.