TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,557
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,557 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Over50c703.25$354 inWon+$349.346,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under52c562.61$292 inLost-$292.0412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under44c240.25$106 inLost-$105.7199624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Over58c123.18$71 inWon+$52.031,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over37c118.94$44 inWon+$74.933,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under63c100$63 inLost-$632,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over44c93$41 inWon+$52.082,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over58c89.97$52 inWon+$37.821,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over66c60$40 inWon+$20.355,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under36c58.95$21 inLost-$21.279855.1%54 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under37c51$19 inLost-$18.8799744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under44c49.99$22 inLost-$22.095,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under50c48.3$24 inLost-$24.151,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f76…3c44backed Under43c46.33$20 inLost-$203630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under51c42.87$22 inLost-$22.052,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e08…cae4backed Under38c42.39$16 inLost-$16.114443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over50c39.3$20 inWon+$19.6510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over38c38.27$15 inWon+$23.734,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Under62c38.27$24 inLost-$23.732,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over56c35.4$20 inWon+$15.412,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over64c32.78$21 inWon+$11.89,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under41c24.82$10 inLost-$10.122,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Over55c24.77$14 inWon+$11.2466056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under63c16.5$10 inLost-$10.41,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.