MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09118136b0ea9a7d8bc70ee27baf442e9978d161feaf4aee2989ca670dcebb00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 53c | 28,265$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 11,769$5,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,265.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 10,460$5,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,422.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 6,767$3,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,518.84 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 5,492$2,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,856.46 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 3,631$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.84 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 2,549$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.59 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 1,760$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.81 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 49c | 1,732$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.47 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 48c | 1,651$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.35 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 47c | 1,523$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 53c | 1,486$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.16 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 46c | 1,370$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.61 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 1,184$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.68 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 1,037$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.94 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 1,028$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.65 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 52c | 824$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.48 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 761$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.94 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 520.01$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.86 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 498.72$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 474.29$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 60c | 299.5$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 68c | 294.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Over | 48c | 290$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 66c | 235$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…60febacked Over | 47c | 233.77$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 199.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 53c | 194.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 175$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 146.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.11 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 95.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 47c | 81.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…3c44backed Under | 32c | 78.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…c435backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 67c | 74.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 61.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 52c | 60.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 52c | 52.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 45.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 48c | 45.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 73c | 43.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…9edabacked Under | 53c | 39.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Over | 70c | 39.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 73c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-5.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-6.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 14.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.