MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x111ac0e50f006efdc44415e6e673df95deaef9c3821e200e5ac208056376d706
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Cleveland Guardians, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 22,398$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 4,939$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.38 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 4,924$2,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 4,604$2,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 4,471$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.24 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 3,150$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 2,000$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 1,706$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 1,642$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.72 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 1,600$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb9…e5cbbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,333$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,250$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 1,218$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.89 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 1,160$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.79 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,150$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.5 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 1,100$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 1,068$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.98 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c1…0ddfbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…c069backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 1,000$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…5eefbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…f403backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…d35dbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 858.05$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.56 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 544.36$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.96 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 503.54$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.84 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 477.27$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.77 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 422.6$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.17 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 358.4$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…6134backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 357.67$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 336.92$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 202.39$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…5282backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 159.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…842dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 158$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 150.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 120.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 108.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 106.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35cc…6c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…7460backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 83.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 78.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 60.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 52.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 36.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…1bf1backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 29.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 21.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9561…2af6backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 19.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-5.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-6.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 14.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.