TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,843
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,843 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals61c2,245$1,370 inWon+$875.126,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians40c1,710$683 inLost-$682.918,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians30c1,231$371 inLost-$370.7312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals68c809.34$550 inWon+$259.292,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Cleveland Guardians33c500$165 inLost-$16594034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Washington Nationals69c398.84$275 inWon+$123.641,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cleveland Guardians31c379.9$118 inLost-$118.123,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Washington Nationals35c317.14$111 inWon+$206.1436440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Washington Nationals75c273$204 inWon+$68.861,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a24…a0fdbacked Washington Nationals78c250$195 inWon+$552759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians65c250$163 inLost-$162.59,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals67c218.64$146 inWon+$72.828,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians31c178.16$56 inLost-$55.534,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals68c165.32$113 inWon+$52.422,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Washington Nationals76c140.97$107 inWon+$33.4879255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals65c103.68$67 inWon+$36.468,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc51…674abacked Washington Nationals68c100.5$68 inWon+$32.169752.6%51 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Cleveland Guardians46c85.14$39 inLost-$39.442,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals66c81.94$54 inWon+$27.862,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians65c62.97$41 inLost-$40.6610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals33c60$20 inWon+$40.35,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians25c49$12 inLost-$12.251,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Washington Nationals42c45$19 inWon+$26.288053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians42c42$18 inLost-$17.715,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Cleveland Guardians31c41.48$13 inLost-$12.9614344.8%64 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Cleveland Guardians40c39.64$16 inLost-$15.6641836.4%152 W · 266 L-31.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f76…3c44backed Cleveland Guardians38c39.19$15 inLost-$153630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ded…3350backed Cleveland Guardians39c32.33$13 inLost-$12.638140.7%33 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x932d…8529backed Washington Nationals69c29.98$21 inWon+$9.4111346%52 W · 61 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa2…2b5dbacked Cleveland Guardians42c28.94$12 inLost-$12.17911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-81%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Washington Nationals68c28.3$19 inWon+$9.011,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked Washington Nationals69c27.67$19 inWon+$8.525260.3%152 W · 100 L+16.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.