MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb607cc7aa16f88a73311bf9e99ada313e4cc83f17766c561a8041f319ce0bce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d9e…3cb9backed Yes | 50c | 795$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 48c | 699.99$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 48c | 521.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.95 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked No | 52c | 520$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.2 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…3776backed Yes | 50c | 512.35$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…4fb7backed No | 52c | 510$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…e6d5backed No | 52c | 380.77$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 50c | 344.8$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.4 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 50c | 242.26$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…62babacked No | 52c | 31.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…46babacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-5.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-6.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 14.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.