Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3790517f2093335b7286dadf5ff8f95f1155ff83d5ac3b5d0fc7456cdd6b5fd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 49c | 308.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 265.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 174.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 166$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 78c | 159.2$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 136.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 124.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 43c | 116.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 107.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 107.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 104.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 101.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 68c | 92.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 56c | 88.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 85.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 78.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 22c | 72.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 33c | 61.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 30c | 60.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 57.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 56.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 62c | 49.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 34.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 32.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 31.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 29.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 27.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 57c | 27.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 41c | 24.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 73c | 23.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 61c | 23.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 22.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce34…8501backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 21.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 59c | 19.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.