TailMyPicks

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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Betclic Apogee Esportsof Betclic Apogee Esports, Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,635 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Liquid72c4,739$3,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,427.9263157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Betclic Apogee Esports21c4,043$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,194.671,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Liquid50c3,870$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.3451942.2%219 W · 300 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Liquid57c2,902$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,641.962,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Betclic Apogee Esports27c2,300$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.9775245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Betclic Apogee Esports33c2,024$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.8661034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Betclic Apogee Esports22c1,838$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.1835839.4%141 W · 217 L+1.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Betclic Apogee Esports30c1,659$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.2621953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Betclic Apogee Esports35c1,347$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.422,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked Liquid33c1,334$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.9630223.2%70 W · 232 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Liquid11c1,174$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4829235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Liquid46c1,151$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.263,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Liquid52c1,039$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.3637646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Liquid80c1,033$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.265,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Betclic Apogee Esports25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75010136.6%37 W · 64 L-9.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Betclic Apogee Esports25c999.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.9994645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65fa…4c6abacked Liquid79c798.08$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.8711564.3%74 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Liquid77c748.22$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57446165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed Betclic Apogee Esports43c736.84$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.3913342.1%56 W · 77 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fca…6ac3backed Liquid12c688$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.464643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1407…e56cbacked Liquid21c603.05$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.282532%8 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…5e63backed Liquid11c601.18$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.895125.5%13 W · 38 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b6…5d73backed Liquid31c579.35$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.682725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24cc…0927backed Betclic Apogee Esports52c575.26$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.2613254.5%72 W · 60 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x928d…5069backed Betclic Apogee Esports67c562.77$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.772065%13 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Liquid75c550.27$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.927,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Liquid66c443.11$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.732,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Betclic Apogee Esports29c414.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.595,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Liquid75c410$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.535744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Betclic Apogee Esports34c407.18$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.741,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Liquid58c385.4$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2221,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Betclic Apogee Esports30c365.26$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.342,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x487e…b043backed Liquid54c344.76$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x083f…5c9cbacked Betclic Apogee Esports77c324.97$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.972441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Liquid73c315.35$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.29443.6%41 W · 53 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Liquid73c309.54$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.5452150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked Liquid69c287.1$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4221354.5%116 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed Liquid45c282.45$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12834547.5%164 W · 181 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Liquid68c270.69$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.031,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x581c…a595backed Betclic Apogee Esports24c250$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1902441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Liquid54c240.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.854,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Liquid57c238.03$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.484,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Liquid78c231.68$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9812937.2%48 W · 81 L-14.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Liquid44c221.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.262,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked Liquid73c205.48$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15028454.9%156 W · 128 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2739…1a9dbacked Betclic Apogee Esports24c201.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.715743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed Liquid54c201.63$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3567372.2%486 W · 187 L+119.1wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xde4b…1222backed Betclic Apogee Esports45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104555.6%25 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Betclic Apogee Esports23c199.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.362,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed Liquid67c185.15$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9872139.7%286 W · 435 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd95d…2ab5backed Liquid73c183$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5932544.3%144 W · 181 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Betclic Apogee Esports29c170.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.61,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Liquid9c170$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31973.6%7 W · 190 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-91.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f6…c6efbacked Liquid14c165.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0418939.2%74 W · 115 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Liquid53c163.26$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.461,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Liquid28c150.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.47042.9%30 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Liquid31c146.07$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.739339.8%37 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf09a…0450backed Liquid55c145.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Liquid74c139.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5930349.8%151 W · 152 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed Liquid75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008925.8%23 W · 66 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked Betclic Apogee Esports74c132.82$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.536560%39 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2764…ec08backed Betclic Apogee Esports43c121.58$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.261637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Betclic Apogee Esports21c120.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3261054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd8…d64cbacked Betclic Apogee Esports40c119.92$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.481266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Betclic Apogee Esports40c119$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.242,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed Liquid44c116.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8258745%264 W · 323 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec47…a9c2backed Liquid50c114.36$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed Betclic Apogee Esports37c107.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.127438.3%105 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc698…6794backed Betclic Apogee Esports36c102.51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.071936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed Betclic Apogee Esports55c100.18$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1819449%95 W · 99 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb909…d559backed Betclic Apogee Esports15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0617648.3%85 W · 91 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Liquid77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.753,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Liquid77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.752,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Liquid70c99.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7053850.6%272 W · 266 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeded…c546backed Liquid75c97.87$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.48153.1%43 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Liquid55c97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6823156.3%130 W · 101 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Liquid66c96.18$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Liquid55c95.38$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7211949.6%59 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Betclic Apogee Esports30c91.96$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7316641%68 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa955…7487backed Betclic Apogee Esports19c88.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick28cpaid+70.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Liquid55c83.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7819050%95 W · 95 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf76…ffeabacked Liquid38c83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7122837.3%85 W · 143 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f58…d93abacked Liquid76c82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.236749.3%33 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…b4e9backed Liquid80c80$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.956861.8%42 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf936…fe2cbacked Liquid48c77.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9133…20acbacked Liquid77c65.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f98…cb91backed Liquid38c62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.676743.3%29 W · 38 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…1044backed Liquid55c56.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.954645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Betclic Apogee Esports34c55.18$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.693,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Betclic Apogee Esports50c55.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.811,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Betclic Apogee Esports21c55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5865548.9%320 W · 335 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x483d…a099backed Betclic Apogee Esports21c50.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.926346.4%122 W · 141 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x092c…65fabacked Liquid70c50.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.086761.2%41 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Betclic Apogee Esports23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.572353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc4…4ef0backed Betclic Apogee Esports42c49.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe598…e597backed Betclic Apogee Esports30c47.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.183360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+29.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Betclic Apogee Esports57c44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.761,06855%587 W · 481 L-1.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Betclic Apogee Esports23c43.48$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4877146%355 W · 416 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Betclic Apogee Esports39c43.44$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4420156.2%113 W · 88 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Betclic Apogee Esports26c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.685054.4%462 W · 388 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.