TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof Team Liquid, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$384,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$457,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $384,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Liquid62c31,024$19,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,1001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed MOUZ24c24,435$5,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,562.8115951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Team Liquid75c18,290$13,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,717.3713960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Liquid44c15,373$6,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,840.6889341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed MOUZ37c14,049$5,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,848.516553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Liquid77c14,019$10,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,854.2640051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Team Liquid79c11,965$9,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,493.6412348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ28c11,366$3,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,197.4471143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Liquid51c10,769$5,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,511.5825446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked MOUZ31c8,976$2,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,194.6312159.5%72 W · 49 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked MOUZ22c8,448$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,616.4150347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Team Liquid55c8,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.9729952.2%156 W · 143 L+19.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed MOUZ23c7,690$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,946.897844.9%35 W · 43 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed MOUZ51c7,238$3,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,555.1121155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Liquid78c6,878$5,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,364.2779159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad42…6031backed MOUZ51c6,659$3,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,280.928648.8%42 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ37c6,493$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,089.041,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Team Liquid63c5,728$3,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,586.3130357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ39c5,457$2,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,310.331,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde24…4dedbacked MOUZ38c5,137$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,178.3519853%105 W · 93 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed MOUZ42c4,813$2,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,786.0818551.4%95 W · 90 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked MOUZ54c4,656$2,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.9319456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ46c4,300$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,318.991,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Team Liquid61c4,250$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.4831444.9%141 W · 173 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Liquid77c4,000$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.9541042.4%174 W · 236 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…b9b4backed MOUZ26c3,895$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,895.239852%51 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Liquid60c3,503$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.9753764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed MOUZ67c3,297$2,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.3230667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Team Liquid80c3,008$2,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,391.9625246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed MOUZ59c2,670$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.9312136.4%44 W · 77 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed MOUZ60c2,339$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.8530356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e9…2eeabacked MOUZ53c2,128$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.486767.2%45 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ53c2,062$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.742,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed MOUZ55c2,005$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.4618560.5%112 W · 73 L+12.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked MOUZ41c1,835$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.2722031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked MOUZ43c1,716$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.0610351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed Team Liquid30c1,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Liquid34c1,600$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.9956949%279 W · 290 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Team Liquid80c1,579$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.85757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked MOUZ37c1,549$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.2531953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ23c1,500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a013backed Team Liquid65c1,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9756342.9%27 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Team Liquid79c1,419$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.61758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed MOUZ20c1,400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12029546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked MOUZ42c1,285$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.8353558.9%315 W · 220 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Liquid25c1,259$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.7314515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Team Liquid80c1,259$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.134667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Team Liquid77c1,219$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.572152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed MOUZ51c1,160$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.1147457.4%272 W · 202 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed MOUZ35c1,159$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.5950353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed MOUZ50c1,145$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.5847748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ37c1,096$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.1172035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Team Liquid80c1,096$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.5428062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Liquid79c1,081$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.4964744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed MOUZ28c1,073$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.841,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed MOUZ48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.676352.4%33 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked MOUZ48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6712255.7%68 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed MOUZ20c1,041$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.927637.3%103 W · 173 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed MOUZ48c1,040$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.5816055.6%89 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked MOUZ24c1,036$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.6153444.4%237 W · 297 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Liquid79c1,031$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.2179559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed MOUZ23c1,000$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.5336343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Team Liquid25c999.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25043538.6%168 W · 267 L-1.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Team Liquid12c950.02$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.422524%6 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked MOUZ29c918.16$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.9650850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Team Liquid50c916$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45828347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked MOUZ48c900$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46827345.8%125 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked MOUZ25c888$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66620160.2%121 W · 80 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa20d…6ba4backed MOUZ33c849.39$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.3914551%74 W · 71 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ38c789.31$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.961,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed MOUZ21c774.85$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.2835637.1%132 W · 224 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed MOUZ49c769.41$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.2647348.2%228 W · 245 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf346…1b8ebacked MOUZ26c769.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.2322339%87 W · 136 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked MOUZ20c766.91$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.3548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Liquid68c755.83$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.1565647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed MOUZ55c695.29$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.5715145%68 W · 83 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd943…8676backed MOUZ22c667.59$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.727839.7%31 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked MOUZ65c659.02$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.0248843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Liquid77c633.99$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.5488539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed MOUZ48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32512065.8%79 W · 41 L+15.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Liquid69c600$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.1188166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed MOUZ25c600$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45015050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2591…b7c1backed Team Liquid32c599.99$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19410246.1%47 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed MOUZ63c590.32$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6892846.2%429 W · 499 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed MOUZ70c571.77$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.7741953.7%225 W · 194 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Liquid39c546.63$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.866545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec1…9a95backed MOUZ50c505$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.55030%15 W · 35 L-7.7wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed MOUZ44c504.55$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.5518549.7%92 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked MOUZ45c504.1$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.1321558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Team Liquid28c500$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.515050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked MOUZ54c479.99$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.5354659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2262…ef1cbacked MOUZ30c460.58$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.413540%14 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Liquid55c456.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25046664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed MOUZ20c447.36$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.891,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ47c447.31$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.462,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Team Liquid31c419.35$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13023529.4%69 W · 166 L-21.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b94…9c0dbacked Team Liquid79c405.32$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.24358.1%25 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed MOUZ20c400$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31dd…4537backed MOUZ22c400$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3128925.8%23 W · 66 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed MOUZ45c394.53$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.8452046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.