TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$138,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$167,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,017 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ16c17,823$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,803.7271143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Liquid73c10,928$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,927.891,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed MOUZ27c10,077$2,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,717.8126540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed MOUZ20c8,000$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.5329952.2%156 W · 143 L+19.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Liquid80c7,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40080056%448 W · 352 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Liquid79c7,000$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,48053764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed MOUZ21c4,805$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.977844.9%35 W · 43 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked MOUZ20c4,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed MOUZ24c3,870$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.084030%12 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked MOUZ22c3,633$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.2810045%45 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed MOUZ20c3,470$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.638855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Team Liquid75c3,215$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.3750347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed MOUZ13c2,964$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.0116553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed MOUZ2c2,881$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4127637.3%103 W · 173 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked MOUZ1c2,617$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2522031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked MOUZ20c2,450$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.0817546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed MOUZ21c2,403$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.6988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed MOUZ17c2,357$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.7440051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Team Liquid73c2,146$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.0330357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a013backed MOUZ12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406342.9%27 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ26c1,850$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.6558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed MOUZ24c1,593$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.9735637.1%132 W · 224 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked MOUZ20c1,469$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed MOUZ17c1,359$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0145352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Liquid78c1,320$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.6392846.2%429 W · 499 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team Liquid78c1,250$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed MOUZ26c986.48$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.421,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked MOUZ22c879.88$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7994442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Team Liquid73c831.27$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.4412348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed MOUZ26c807.69$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2106841.2%28 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Liquid74c804$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.0464744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b26…21e0backed Team Liquid79c709.14$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6413464.9%87 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed MOUZ27c559.39$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2650353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd943…8676backed MOUZ26c559.12$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.377839.7%31 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Liquid75c500$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed MOUZ27c499.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13565441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Team Liquid73c418.68$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1713960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed MOUZ25c402$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.520233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Team Liquid80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8066648.6%324 W · 342 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked MOUZ27c332.52$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8922738.3%87 W · 140 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6600…d5fdbacked Team Liquid80c325$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656369.8%44 W · 19 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b94…9c0dbacked Team Liquid78c320.51$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.514358.1%25 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x667c…9293backed MOUZ28c318.36$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.96933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed MOUZ26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782857.1%16 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked MOUZ22c289.96$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6219849%97 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked MOUZ25c273.78$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.79837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da2…8c2bbacked Team Liquid71c265.46$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8110966.1%72 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Liquid79c221.83$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8346664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed MOUZ20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4036452.5%191 W · 173 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2262…ef1cbacked MOUZ21c190.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403540%14 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3e6…8532backed MOUZ11c154.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710849.1%53 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked MOUZ22c151.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked MOUZ30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4515342.5%65 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72db…1029backed MOUZ21c130.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.321752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc1…662fbacked Team Liquid78c128.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2311257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ec…2711backed MOUZ18c127.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310039%39 W · 61 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed Team Liquid73c114.96$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0460460.6%366 W · 238 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked MOUZ17c113.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4287838.3%336 W · 542 L-42.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Liquid74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked MOUZ15c98.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1529350.2%147 W · 146 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b39…8b50backed Team Liquid77c92.47$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4711751.3%60 W · 57 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dba…6929backed MOUZ21c88.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196341.3%26 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Team Liquid73c82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1425266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb323…e253backed MOUZ21c80.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.631553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed MOUZ25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208940.4%36 W · 53 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5000…c2bebacked MOUZ27c70.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba48…907cbacked Team Liquid80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126654.5%36 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0882…dceabacked MOUZ20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Team Liquid70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c62…ca89backed Team Liquid80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed MOUZ25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1096942.8%415 W · 554 L-19.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Team Liquid76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4722260.4%134 W · 88 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b8…2325backed Team Liquid76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.47933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-45.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked MOUZ28c37.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.683565.7%23 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x260a…eb0fbacked Team Liquid73c37.35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0115368%104 W · 49 L+17.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Team Liquid80c37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.446354.6%253 W · 210 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Team Liquid74c30.94$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.944858.3%28 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Liquid75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a91…3eb7backed Team Liquid72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.786866.2%45 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe682…dbcdbacked Team Liquid74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.031650%8 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf75…099fbacked Team Liquid80c23.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.771376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…47f5backed Team Liquid71c22.95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.64663%29 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dae…7199backed Team Liquid77c16.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.78944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…f40dbacked Team Liquid70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.544771.1%318 W · 129 L+27.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.