South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37ab1f51b89690e688157b2dd4938954daa38785523b93badd2900c1a2143987
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed No | 56c | 6,550$3,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,667.75 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…3051backed Yes | 47c | 3,745$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 17c | 3,375$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.69 | 1,393 | 52.6%733 W · 660 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 45c | 3,155$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.11 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 49c | 1,056$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.94 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 44c | 909.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.09 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 47c | 872.34$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.34 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed No | 3c | 620.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 79c | 420.94$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 2,376 | 34.7%824 W · 1,552 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 51c | 356.08$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.12 | 1,325 | 50%663 W · 662 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 48c | 284$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 52c | 274.53$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 46c | 213.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d95…9a88backed Yes | 79c | 208.86$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 197.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 184.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 1,489 | 37.4%557 W · 932 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 30c | 141.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1,466 | 56.8%833 W · 633 L | +56.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Yes | 76c | 130.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 1,442 | 51.9%748 W · 694 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 17c | 107.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 33c | 94.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 52.8%114 W · 102 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 54c | 46.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 66c | 42.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 45c | 42.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 1,261 | 53.6%676 W · 585 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…311fbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb6…8cdebacked Yes | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.