Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e179a3b0b971713a8ec6cf59feca6e362c1f1acf05e2599263692ced5d1cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 827.76$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.42 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 674.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 347.12$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 311.89$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.23 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 300$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 280$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194d…85c0backed No | 76c | 254$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 249.71$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 201.84$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 164.3$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 23c | 128.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 124.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 120.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 37c | 120.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 22c | 114.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 67c | 110.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 101.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 22c | 90.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 58c | 89.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 85.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 77.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 31c | 77.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 76.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 73.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 64.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…9705backed Yes | 67c | 59.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 71c | 58.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 74c | 53.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 26c | 53.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 49.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 45.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 31c | 44.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa5…8fdbbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 39.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 69c | 36.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 70c | 35.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…56f5backed Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 69c | 32.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 34c | 32.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 31.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 35c | 31.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 73c | 31.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…db23backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 64c | 26.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 76c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 52c | 25.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 25.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 24.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 48c | 22.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 79c | 20.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 19.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes | 68c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.