TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,374 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Over65c9,235$6,000 inWon+$3,235.628,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under35c3,633$1,271 inLost-$1,271.4610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Under34c2,628$890 inLost-$889.8218741.2%77 W · 110 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3449…abdfbacked Under32c2,313$740 inLost-$740.168624.4%21 W · 65 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under35c815.87$285 inLost-$285.3911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under30c459.68$140 inLost-$139.784,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under32c266.09$85 inLost-$85.155,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b95…5733backed Over68c264.7$180 inWon+$84.721055.2%116 W · 94 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over68c261$177 inWon+$84.498,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under35c138$48 inLost-$48.312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under34c133.92$46 inLost-$45.563,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under24c116.49$28 inLost-$27.565,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Over70c92.35$65 inWon+$27.737551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Under35c79.32$27 inLost-$27.4413353.4%71 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c6…eeb6backed Over76c50$38 inWon+$11.915942.8%68 W · 91 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Over65c47$31 inWon+$16.4524243%104 W · 138 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Over77c34.49$27 inWon+$7.8372655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under35c31$11 inLost-$10.856,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Over68c27.59$19 inWon+$8.8359749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8263…e0f1backed Over65c23.88$16 inWon+$8.3634754.8%190 W · 157 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcae1…f1acbacked Over68c22.06$15 inWon+$7.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000a…6cf7backed Over76c20$15 inWon+$4.825260.7%153 W · 99 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over69c20$14 inWon+$6.21,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe581…d77abacked Over77c19.48$15 inWon+$4.487650%38 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Over77c15.51$12 inWon+$3.572,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.