MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0219c5d7823df17f7dbf08883ee0a0b4af9f3eb97f46df2eac218a9891f876c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 28c | 6,632$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.32 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 72c | 3,488$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 69c | 800$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 73c | 710.3$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.78 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 77c | 600$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 74c | 269.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb9…4009backed Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 73c | 104$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 77c | 98.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 88.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…5c01backed Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 71c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 74c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.