MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x381d6e2c5e0d21d9e9c458d96c622074e85f0602d7d2f86e077d65d3a04a8236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 5,287$3,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 4,500$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ff…473dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 4,393$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 3,255$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.19 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 1,005$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 593.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.75 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 414.48$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 406.19$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 404.37$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 17c | 372.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 309$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Braves | 27c | 240$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 172.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 143.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 142.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 137.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 123.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 123.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 115.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 115.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 111.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 109$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 97.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 72.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 72.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 72.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 49.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 44.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.