MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9778b325467c074373d90748514c62b229256658bb39a98434176c9a1260a2cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 8,000$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 3,105$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.25 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 2,797$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.7 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ff…473dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 1,673$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 1,667$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.66 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 1,430$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 1,009$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.45 | 4,534 | 49%2,220 W · 2,314 L | -41.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 746.75$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.64 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 653.46$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.04 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 598.5$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.03 | 584 | 51.5%301 W · 283 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 556.69$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.06 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 249.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 241.01$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 191.85$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 132.08$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 6,132 | 55.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L | +346.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 129.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 1,926 | 53.4%1,029 W · 897 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 127.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 127.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 112$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 26c | 106.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 103.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 91.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Atlanta Braves | 60c | 88.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 1,220 | 55.7%679 W · 541 L | +96.1wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 68.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 66.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 23c | 65.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,200 | 40.2%884 W · 1,316 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 54.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 54.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 2,597 | 61.5%1,596 W · 1,001 L | +72.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 23c | 54.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 48.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1,738 | 50.4%876 W · 862 L | +57.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 44.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 3,467 | 51.2%1,775 W · 1,692 L | +105.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 41.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 37.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 32.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 32.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 32.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Atlanta Braves | 58c | 21.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 18.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,852 | 54%1,001 W · 851 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.