MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0087670fb4358ae3e66c1332aeada4d4c40ffab0d701e4300a95aa7bb530354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 971$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 758.83$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 558$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 553.3$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 44c | 382.62$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.27 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 36c | 313.76$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 55c | 236.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 54c | 222.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 68c | 145.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 36c | 144.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 36c | 144.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 15c | 138.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 129$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 113.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 112.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 110.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 45c | 101.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 32c | 80.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 43c | 79.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 68c | 72.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 57c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 68c | 63.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 63.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…5f41backed Over | 25c | 59.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Over | 43c | 58.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 43c | 57.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 44c | 57.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 44c | 57.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 44c | 57.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 44c | 57.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 56c | 48.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 59c | 48.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 79c | 41.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 68c | 36.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 32.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 68c | 30.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 67c | 29.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 35c | 29.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Under | 59c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.