MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b0613b84fda8f5cef01863be9d1452042a9947c276b997f62cddb765d51d752
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 1,261$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.45 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 747.39$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.53 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 473.94$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.62 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 346.39$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 302.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 276.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 239.92$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 231$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 123.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 122.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 41.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…96a8backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.