MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x382726482199ac3b9b999c131eaf72fc5e9d3e0cfa0985e86de71bbde78c4ab6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf99e…4d03backed Under | 2c | 1,999$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 3c | 1,125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 3c | 1,125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 48c | 959.2$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.41 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 447.2$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 363.44$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.65 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 314.48$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 52c | 309.33$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.48 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 51c | 228.34$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.45 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 49c | 185.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 184.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 50c | 178$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 65c | 165.04$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 21c | 156$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 79c | 154.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 49c | 152.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 55c | 136.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 99.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 48c | 77.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 46c | 70.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 43c | 54.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Over | 51c | 53.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 49c | 50.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…2775backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 45c | 45.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 58c | 42.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 52c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 66c | 36.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 66c | 34.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 33.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 28.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 47c | 27.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 46c | 25.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 58c | 23.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Over | 55c | 21.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 54c | 19.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Over | 66c | 17.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.