MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81d2b09d3d25a97ecb0d7fdad4e2466b6e81689a1d5dfa6c24ed73410b5ba2d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 46c | 1,985$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.91 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 1,300$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 776.64$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.34 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 635.32$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 55c | 356.55$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.06 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 32c | 326.42$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.49 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 44c | 298.53$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.56 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 57c | 255.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 57c | 253.71$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 157.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 78c | 153.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 43c | 146$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 52c | 136.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 66c | 132.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 59c | 127.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 112.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 74c | 112.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 43c | 102.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 74c | 72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 74c | 59.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 47c | 54.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…51f9backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 64c | 49.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 75c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 67c | 45.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 56c | 44.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 43c | 34.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 57c | 34.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 71c | 29.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 42c | 29.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 58c | 27.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…01a8backed Under | 50c | 27.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked Under | 56c | 17.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.