MLB · resolved market
Tigers vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x383ebca9046b8821f30a6b9cf074588bc3a62aa7c576103a363cb5ca72c9f38c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tigersof Tigers, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Tigers | 49c | 41,224$20,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,010.52 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a0…2265backed Tigers | 45c | 38,000$17,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,900 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…af98backed Astros | 55c | 35,900$19,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,745 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Astros | 53c | 31,630$16,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,684.87 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Tigers | 46c | 23,572$10,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,728.64 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Astros | 51c | 22,595$11,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,464.11 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Astros | 54c | 3,652$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.05 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 37c | 3,046$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.13 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Astros | 50c | 2,127$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.49 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb3…17cdbacked Astros | 55c | 2,100$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Astros | 54c | 1,869$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.34 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Tigers | 46c | 1,739$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.13 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Astros | 54c | 1,600$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.99 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Astros | 54c | 1,319$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.81 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c63…a86fbacked Tigers | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Astros | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros | 54c | 810.19$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.76 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Tigers | 46c | 749.28$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.61 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Tigers | 51c | 677$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.99 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6823…2bd7backed Astros | 54c | 553.7$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…22f1backed Astros | 53c | 532.08$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f01…6f56backed Tigers | 49c | 518.37$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…63e0backed Tigers | 49c | 481.63$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…2c70backed Astros | 53c | 467.92$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Astros | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…3969backed Astros | 54c | 446.3$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Astros | 54c | 408.11$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Astros | 54c | 402$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.4 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Tigers | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tigers | 67c | 298.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.66 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tigers | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Astros | 7c | 211.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Astros | 54c | 207.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Astros | 51c | 205$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Tigers | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Tigers | 60c | 197.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Astros | 37c | 168$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Tigers | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Tigers | 46c | 102.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Tigers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Astros | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Tigers | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Tigers | 78c | 68.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Astros | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…7febbacked Astros | 54c | 55.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 54c | 52.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Tigers | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Tigers | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Tigers | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Tigers | 45c | 33.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Astros | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Tigers | 48c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Tigers | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.