South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-07-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x385525d5149d5707061715b2aa42eac214ea34ddf3b4ede124adaedaf9307f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…38c8backed Yes | 5c | 8,400$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Yes | 14c | 7,530$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.81 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…bab9backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…5cc8backed No | 62c | 3,500$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.03 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…349cbacked Yes | 30c | 2,067$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.98 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…2410backed Yes | 27c | 1,821$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…ee54backed Yes | 29c | 1,801$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 71c | 1,751$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.8 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…6732backed Yes | 23c | 1,731$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 14c | 1,400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Yes | 3c | 1,320$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,002$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 97 | 10.3%10 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed No | 72c | 988$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.47 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 39c | 897.49$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.96 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Yes | 40c | 828.95$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.58 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 58c | 699.94$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.97 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d5…66d8backed No | 59c | 602.65$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.09 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…4557backed Yes | 5c | 582.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Yes | 28c | 536.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…c760backed Yes | 46c | 519.14$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 22c | 509$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 38c | 499$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.62 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 18c | 401$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…8f34backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 38c | 397.04$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…306dbacked No | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…b180backed Yes | 42c | 322.67$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.52 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…55f8backed Yes | 5c | 301.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 62c | 296.73$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed No | 77c | 296.48$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…c41ebacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fe…3c28backed No | 72c | 224.01$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 217.36$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…825cbacked Yes | 14c | 214.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 38c | 199$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 15c | 166.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed No | 75c | 165.76$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…289ebacked Yes | 37c | 160.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…e3cfbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…a36fbacked Yes | 40c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 53c | 141.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…8892backed Yes | 17c | 136.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 39c | 119.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Yes | 39c | 112.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 24c | 108$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2281…5cb6backed Yes | 10c | 104.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 25c | 99.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 98.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e65…cfb7backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4524…add6backed Yes | 41c | 78.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 40c | 76.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 59c | 74.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed No | 60c | 61.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed No | 75c | 55.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 39c | 54.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 80c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 40c | 48.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…83f2backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 77c | 38.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf37e…2709backed No | 79c | 31.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed No | 56c | 30.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc3…c9f1backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Yes | 39c | 29.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed No | 75c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e48…3c51backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…8c41backed No | 73c | 25.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 43c | 25.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2180…df40backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5111…a164backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x428c…c64fbacked Yes | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-07-21?this page
- Will CA Tigre win on 2026-07-21?Yes won
- Will Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.