Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3859eee551d0f9c2f62d6b0deb8067ae070fa31a68dfd98cf49756da0174cc7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsof Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, UC Riverside Highlanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,610 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 52c | 7,178$3,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,445.24 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed UC Riverside Highlanders | 48c | 3,022$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.48 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed UC Riverside Highlanders | 48c | 1,983$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.61 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked UC Riverside Highlanders | 48c | 1,548$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.95 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 52c | 824.83$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.07 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked UC Riverside Highlanders | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 50c | 359.61$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed UC Riverside Highlanders | 48c | 312.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 195 | 54.9%107 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked UC Riverside Highlanders | 47c | 166.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked UC Riverside Highlanders | 50c | 152.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked UC Riverside Highlanders | 45c | 135.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 55c | 132.77$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 54c | 119.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 54c | 118.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed UC Riverside Highlanders | 46c | 109.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed UC Riverside Highlanders | 48c | 104.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed UC Riverside Highlanders | 48c | 103.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked UC Riverside Highlanders | 51c | 99.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked UC Riverside Highlanders | 51c | 97.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…c8ebbacked UC Riverside Highlanders | 20c | 76.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…6cc9backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 52c | 76.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed UC Riverside Highlanders | 48c | 61.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked UC Riverside Highlanders | 49c | 51.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed UC Riverside Highlanders | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 195 | 22.1%43 W · 152 L | -36.3wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 49c | 43.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed UC Riverside Highlanders | 47c | 39.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 52c | 37.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked UC Riverside Highlanders | 48c | 34.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…47c0backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 80c | 29.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed UC Riverside Highlanders | 46c | 27.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 50c | 23.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b68…7378backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 54c | 19.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-11.5)this page
- Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-12.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won
- UC Riverside Highlanders vs. Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsHawaii Rainbow Warriors won
- UC Riverside Highlanders vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 146.5Over won
- UC Riverside Highlanders vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 148.5Over won
- UC Riverside Highlanders vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 149.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.